Time Out for Sports Talk: The Journey to Glendale Continues

Todd: As I stated so accurately last week, cold temps and stout defenses should make that Patriots-Ravens game a low-scoring affair.  35-31?  Oh well, at least I had the part about the Pats winning right.

For the fourth year in a row and the ninth time in the 14 seasons of the Brady/Belichick era, the New England Patriots are playing for the AFC Championship.

While it might feel like old hat, the Pats have become just the fifth NFL franchise to play in four straight conference title games, joining Oakland (they actually played in five straight back in the 1970’s), Philadelphia, Buffalo and Dallas (who played in four straight in the 70’s and 90’s).

Some of the greatest quarterbacks of our lifetime – Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, John Elway, Dan Marino – have never accomplished this feat.

Which brings us to Tom Brady.  I typically spend a lot of time in this space writing about other Pats players, but usually ignore, downplay or take for granted the exploits of TB12.

However, I can’t do that this week.  Sure, last week’s exhilarating win over the Ravens will long be remembered for Julian Edelman (finally) harkening back to his QB days at Kent State and the Pats running formations with only four offensive linemen.

But playing in his NFL record 27th postseason game, Brady passed for a career playoff best 367 yards (trailing Peyton by just nine yards for career playoff passing yardage), and his game-winning fourth quarter touchdown pass to Brandon LaFell was the 46th of his playoff career, passing his boyhood idol Joe Montana (45) for the most in that category.  He also became the first QB in history to bring his team back not once, but twice, from down two touchdowns in a playoff game.

Brady’s achievements as a 37-year old QB are even more incredible when viewed in contrast to how his longtime adversary fared last weekend.  For the ninth time in his postseason career, Peyton went one-and-done and just possibly might be done for good.

To me, this one statistic best sums up Brady’s greatness.  In the history of the NFL playoffs, there have been 34 occasions when a quarterback has attempted 50 or more passes.  After last weekend’s Pats win, Brady has now done it four times and is 3-1.  All other QBs are a combined 3-27.

The second number isn’t much of a surprise when you consider that QBs throwing that often are either trailing by a considerable margin, have no running game, or both.  You expect those teams to lose a large majority of the time because opponents have an easier time defending an offense that is one-dimensional.

So what does it say that Brady has been successful three out of four times facing this scenario when defenses know he’s going to throw?  Against the Ravens, Brady didn’t even hand the ball off once to a running back in the second half, yet still brought the Pats back from a 28-14 deficit in the third quarter.  No question the ‘trickeration’ helped in the comeback, but it still takes a pretty special quarterback to finish the job and earn the win.

Enough gushing, except to say I hope everyone continues to enjoy the Tom Brady show while it lasts.

Having said all that, it boggles my mind that Brady and the offense continue having problems just before halftime.  It used to be a time of the game that Brady owned, making it all the more mystifying that it’s become such a trouble spot now.  I sure hope this setback in the Pats’ attack doesn’t come back to bite them as the season dwindles down to its final games.

On to the Colts, who arrive in Foxboro hoping to turn around their recent misfortunes against New England.  In the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era, Indy is 0-3 vs. Brady/Belichick, having been outscored 144-66.  Luck has thrown for 968 yards in those three games, but has only completed 54 percent of his passes with 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

As I mentioned last week, Luck has had fairly pedestrian TD/INT numbers the last few weeks (now 9/7 in his last six games).  While there’s no question the third-year QB is a rising star and has had a great season (40/16), his renegade passing style and recent run of throwing picks is reminding me of Brett Favre.

I’ll be interested to see how the ground games fare for both teams, as neither team runs well and the Pats have put up big numbers against the Colts on the ground.  At the very least, I don’t expect Brady will need to throw the ball fifty times like he did last week.

The matchup says the Pats should win decisively, but I suspect that Indy’s recent confidence will result in an improved performance this time around.  Despite the fact I predicted a Packers-Colts Super Bowl back in September, I’m going against my own pick and go with: Patriots 31, Colts 24.

I’m actually going to give myself the double-whammy and also pick against Green Bay in the NFC title game, despite the trend that one road team usually wins on Conference Championship weekend (although that wasn’t the case last year).  Seattle has been strong playing at home, where they soundly beat the Pack to open the season.  Plus their defense has been on fire, playing like sharks who see blood in the water dripping from Aaron Rodgers’ hobbled calf.  Seahawks 26, Packers 17.

Mike: I am quite relieved that Peyton did not make the AFC Championship Game, because it spares me having to hear the Brady/Manning hype again!

But I have to say, the Pats/Ravens game was one of the most exciting that I have ever seen! I thought they were done a few times, but they kept coming back! It made it feel like the glory days again!

And I am stunned at the fact that was Edleman's first NFL pass, I would have sworn he's thrown before, but leave it to the Pats to have that waiting for the biggest game!

And one last thing, I really wish the Ravens would just shut up about the Pats "deception." It was legal, you missed it, you lost. Get over it!

Anyway, on to this week, I can't see Indy coming in and winning this one. Pats go to another Super Bowl with a 34-20 win.

As for the NFC, I know I called a Pats/Packers Super Bowl at the beginning of the season, so I can't go against that now. Pack pulls the upset 28-27.

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