Time Out for Sports Talk: The Journey to Glendale Begins
Todd: I’m having an emotional tug of war with myself regarding the New England Patriots.
When last season ended in Denver short of a championship, I still admired those them for overcoming several key injuries just to reach the AFC title game. But at the same time I felt mighty low after that loss, wondering how many more chances Tom Brady and Bill Belichick would get to try and add that elusive fourth Lombardi to their legacies.
Fast forward to this season, where significant upgrades were made on defense and the Pats found ways to win games not seen often over the last decade. My view of the Pats’ championship window has now opened a crack or two, and with it, my expectations of what they are capable of doing. But 2007 is still fresh in my mind, and I would prefer not getting blindsided that way again.
That is the conundrum I am going through, leaving me cautiously optimistic as another postseason commences at Gillette Stadium on Saturday.
Factor in the Baltimore Ravens winning their first-ever playoff game in Pittsburgh last week. Not only did that result prevent the Steelers from traveling to Denver, where they would’ve likely knocked Peyton Manning around, but it created a matchup with the Pats that raised my cautiousness up a couple of ticks.
The Ravens are the one AFC team lacking any trepidation over a January trip to Foxboro, their fourth in the last six postseasons (where they’ve won two of the previous three meetings). In fact, the Ravens have been a postseason road beast, going 10-5 over the last fifteen years and tying Green Bay for most road playoff wins (although the Packers’ postseason history stretches back to 1936).
For some empirical data, the Ravens finished second in the NFL this season with 49 sacks (led by Elvis Dumervil’s 17 and Terrell Suggs’ 12), including five last week against Ben Roethlisberger. They’ve also not allowed an opposing running back to rush for 100 yards over their last 27 games, the longest current streak in the league.
More pluses for the Ravens include QB Joe Flacco’s 13 TD and 0 INT in his last five playoff games (all wins) and Justin Forsett’s emergence as a lead running back (1,266 yards and 8 TD).
All those numbers give me pause, in particular how the Ravens defense has traditionally fared against Tom Brady.
But Brady has two things going for him that should help improve on those career numbers. First, a healthy Rob Gronkowski—the last time Gronk faced the Ravens three years ago, Bernard Pollard dragged him down from behind and severely sprained his ankle (thankfully, Pollard is no longer a Raven). The Ravens finished 20th this year defending against tight ends.
Second, the return of Dan Connolly from his ankle/neck injuries should bring cohesion back to the Pats’ offensive line, which has struggled in recent weeks in his absence.
I’ll even add a third plus for the Pats—Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are no longer lining up opposite Brady, important intangibles to consider.
Could see a game plan similar to the game vs. Detroit, when Brady went no-huddle/spread offense and got rid of the ball quickly, dinking and dunking his way down the field. That strategy could tire out the Ravens defenders and neutralize their strong pass rush.
Back to that Pats defense, which the Ravens have not faced this season. In their last six games, they’ve allowed a grand total of four field goals and NO touchdowns in the second half. That’s twelve points in twelve quarters, championship caliber D.
Cold temps and stout defenses should make this game a low-scoring affair, but one that the Pats can win. Patriots 20, Ravens 17.
Moving to the other divisional playoff games, I first want to mention that I won the head-to-head predictions battle vs. Mike, finishing 33-14 to his 31-16, thanks largely to going a perfect 6-0 the last two weeks of the season. As we move to our playoff picks, I’m curious to see how close we come to our preseason SB predictions (I had Packers over Colts, Mike went with Pats over Pack).
Carolina (8-8-1) at Seattle (12-4): At a glance, this looks like the least interesting of this weekend’s four games and will likely play out as such. But did you know these two clubs are arguably the hottest of the eight left standing? Five straight wins for the Panthers, six for the Seahawks. Noted in Seattle’s streak is that they’ve allowed only one of their last six opponents to score in double-digits. The way their defense is playing, I’ll be shocked if that trend doesn’t continue. Seahawks 23, Panthers 6.
Dallas (13-4) at Green Bay (12-4): The Packers were 8-0 at home while the Cowboys were 8-0 on the road. It’s also the first postseason game at Lambeau between these two since the infamous ‘Ice Bowl’ game. Back on New Year’s Eve 1967 it was minus-2 degrees at kickoff with a minus-23 wind chill, but it should reach at least the teens in Green Bay on Sunday. With an ailing calf, don’t expect Aaron Rodgers to duplicate Bart Starr’s TD plunge from 47 years ago, but Rodgers will do enough. Packers 21, Cowboys 17.
Indianapolis (12-5) at Denver (12-4): Speaking of ailing, I think Peyton Manning is hiding a significant injury. How else to explain his recent decline and an emphasis on Denver’s ground game? Even without Peyton playing his best, the Broncos’ defense and CJ Anderson’s running should be enough, plus I don’t trust Indy’s run defense or Andrew Luck’s inconsistent play outdoors (4 TD, 4 INT in his last 3 road games). Broncos 27, Colts 19.
Mike: Well, here we go. Playoff time once again, and it's the Ravens. I'm feeling a bit like Indiana Jones here...substituting "Ravens" for "snakes."
Here's the thing, I think New England can beat Baltimore, but for some reason this game makes me nervous. Like Todd, I expect this to be a low-scoring nail-biter, but I think the Pats will pull it off in the end. Patriots win 23-21.
Congrats on the regular season win Todd! As for the other games this week, I'll take Seattle over Carolina 34-17. Denver over Indy 24-10 and Green Bay over Dallas 35-17.
Our next LIVE show is coming up on Monday night, January 26 at 8:00pm. You can post your questions via Twitter using the hashtag #TOSTjan26 or call in at (617) 484-2443.
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